It's finally here. The 2015 Stanley Cup Finals! Before I get into this, let me just show you a quick picture of The Hockey News preseason predictions magazine:
That is pretty impressive, not gonna lie. I would never have predicted this final even with the postseason underway, let alone in the preseason! Well done The Hockey News.
Anyways, time to look at who is going to take the cup, and at this point I have a pretty good opinion on who I think wins it. Let's compare the two teams on how they've done this postseason, and attempt to pick a winner:
So one thing to note is statistics-wise, Chicago beats Tampa in every single major category except for PK this playoffs, and the PK is only by .4%. It just shows how experienced the Hawks are, they really know what they're doing. Chicago has had to deal with Nashville, Minnesota & Anaheim, while Tampa has got through Detroit, Montreal & New York, which are all solid teams, but the Western Conference is much more of a blood bath. Corey Crawford struggled vs. Nashville, but has come back really strong and has proved he IS the starter of this team, no questions asked. For me Ben Bishop has had a really great postseason, much more of what was expected in him, but I think he's been inconsistent at times. Sure, you can't really argue with 2 game 7 shutouts, but he's been yanked twice this postseason, and those "off-games" can't be tolerated in the Cup Final. We'll have to see if the Hawks can get to Big Ben or not.
Up front throughout this postseason we've got to learn just how lethal Tampa's offensive core is. They've been able to score at will all postseason, and it will be up to the Hawks to shutdown guys like Stamkos, Killorn, Johnson, Kucherov, Palat & more. Chicago has much more of a different look offensively, with a lethal top 6 and a defensive and checking bottom 6, with guys like Toews, Kane, Saad, Richards in the top 6 while players like Shaw, Desjardins, Vermette,, guys like that fill out the bottom 6. They even have pushed Patrick Sharp to the 3rd line for goodness sake! I'm not sure I trust Tampa's bottom 6 as much, as inexperienced players like Paquette, Namestnikov, even Drouin and Marchessault have gotten some time, and that really doesn't match the experience Chi-Town has. I like guys like Brian Boyle & Morrow but Chicago still wins the 'depth-off'. Overall Tampa has the better goal scoring offense, but Chicago has them beat on depth. If Chicago is able to shut down Tampa's run & gun offense, The Bolts are in big trouble.
Moving back to defense, we all know what Chicago's core looks like. You've got your horses in Duncan Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Keith, Oduya, Keith, Keith, you get the point. I think Chicago's tired d-core is something the Bolts can take advantage of. With their quick & speedy offense, they can tire down guys like Keith, and if you get Keith tired you know you're doing something right. Even with Roszival still nursing his ankle injury, Cumiskey has looked decent, but Timonen has not. Coach Q even sat the veteran Timonen for David Rundblad in game 7, so the bottom 6 defense looks somewhat shaky for Chicago, but it's okay because they never actually get any playing time (lol, I so funny). Tampa on the other hand in my opinion has a solid d-core that's stepped up to the plate this playoffs. Hedman is a tank, and a PP QB, while Stralman has an excellent outlet pass, and is an insane puck-moving defenseman with defensive upside. I like Jason Garrison, I like Matt Carle, I don't mind Braydon Coburn, but this Sustr character. I do not like Andrej Sustr. He seems reluctant and worried back there, and even with all his size, I don't think he's that good of a player. Then there's Nikita Nesterov who sometimes looks like Erik Karlsson out there, but sometimes looks like Mike Komisarek so I really can't judge on him. Overall Chicago has a tired core, but I think it's a lot more experienced than Tampa's, and in the SCF you need experience so I'm going with Chicago.
We already looked at the goaltending matchup, as I said I'm don't like Bishop's consistency. Crawford has won a cup before, and doesn't seem to be worried back there, which are good signs. I'm not sure how Bishop will react to a Cup Final, but I think he CAN outplay Crawford, so the goaltending IS a tossup.
Finally, I'm going to predict the Cup Champion. The winner, in my opinion, of the 2015 Stanley Cup is.... *DRUMROLL* .... The Chicago Blackhawks. I don't see the East beating the West this year, and Chicago's leadership and hard work will be enough to deal with the Bolts in a 6-game series. The only way Tampa will win is if they take advantage of Chicago's tired d-core, and in that case it's anyones series. Though my final prediction is the Hawks take the Cup in 6 games. I'd love to hear other opinions, please comment down in the section below. Thanks for reading!
Happy SCF!
~UWNHL TEAM
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